Expert Knowledge Elicitation on HALE

MVEN10

Author

Ullrika

Task 1.

You are an assessor invited to support structured expert judgement using expert knowledge elicitation.

Expert Elicitation on HALE

A group of experts have been invited to contribute with their knowledge on the European value of the indicator Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth

HALE is defined as follows: The average number of years that a person can expect to live in “full health” by taking into account years lived in less than full health due to disease and/or injury.

They have been asked to express their uncertainty about the value of the EU average of HALE in 2030?

Motivation for HALE as indicator

Substantial resources are devoted to reducing the incidence, duration and severity of major diseases that cause morbidity but not mortality and to reducing their impact on people’s lives.

It is important to capture both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes in a summary measure of average levels of population health.

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth adds up expectation of life for different health states, adjusted for severity distribution making it sensitive to changes over time or differences between countries in the severity distribution of health states.

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EKE session HALE - individual judgements

  • Individual judgements were collected using the quartile method

Each expert has provided their quantiles U,L,M,Q1 and Q3 together with reasoning

EKE session HALE - facilitated discussion

Judgements collected during the exercise are in the Sheffield Role Play document

First the elicitor fit using the SHELF app for multiple experts. Try out yourself!

Then the elicitor moderate a discussion among the experts. Here you are to play the expert A-D. Ullrika is the elicitor and will be facilitating the discussion. Follow the script!

EKE session HALE - consensus judgement

  • We use the probability method to elicit judgements by the RIO

P(QoI<X1) for a value of X1 given by the facilitator

P(QoI>X2) for a value of X2 given by the facilitator

P(QoI<X0) for a value of X0 given by the facilitator

Fit using SHELF app for single expert