The healthy life years for females in Norway 2003
Healthy life years is defined as the number of remaining years that a person at birth is expected to live without any severe or moderate health problems.
[Link to definition on eurostat] (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/hlth_hlye_h_esms.htm)
We discussed the quantity and enusured that it was well-defined
The experts (students) made their judgements indpendent of each other
Each student fitted a distribution to their judgements and extracted a 80% probability interval
The judgements (five quantiles) and the probability interval was shared with the facilitator (Ullrika)
The average number of healthy years for females in Norway is likely to be below but close to the life expectancy, and unlikely to be close to 0 or above 100
Some probability distributions allows for negative values, which is problematic when calculating the probability intervals
Take home message:
make sure the experts understand the quantity, e.g. by asking them to justify their judgements
the final probability distribution must be chosen with care